“WE ARE DESCENDING into a period of digital disorder.” That’s an
opening sentiment of a new report from the Global Business Policy
Council (GBPC), a unit of the global management consulting firm Kearney (formerly A.T.
Kearney). The current technological environment is quickly evolving
from one that followed a primarily predictable path to one that’s being
transformed in unpredictable ways by new regulations (such as the
European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation), advancing technology (such as 5G wireless networks
and artificial intelligence), and
intensifying global competition.
Although it’s not yet clear how the
use of digital technologies will change
over the next decade, the GBPC predicts
that, by the year 2030, businesses will
be forced to contend with at least one of
four possible future scenarios:
Techlash to Renaissance, in which
the world sees a public backlash against
overstepping tech companies. This
so-called “techlash” inspires a wave of
national policies and regulations. From
this, the world emerges with a robust
and effectively regulated cross-border
digital environment.
Digital Crackdown, in which “high
levels of nationalism and strict government
control of digital platforms … dominate
the operating environment.” The
global economy falters as governments
increasingly focus on national and state-owned
enterprises, and as bureaucratic
obstacles hinder companies’ innovation
and decision making.
Fake News Devolution, in which a
weak regulatory environment spawns
a “digital Wild West” that enables
the proliferation of online fake news.
The spread of disinformation further
degrades the public trust in government
and business institutions. As
nationalism takes hold, consumers
avoid foreign-born technologies,
putting a damper on global economic
growth. At the same time, companies
must cope with “rampant hacking, IP
theft, corporate espionage, and online
smear campaigns.”
Surveillance Capitalism, in which
tech giants in the U.S. and China are
more powerful than national governments.
These companies reach larger
numbers of people through their digital
platforms, quickly acquire competitors,
and snuff out regulatory efforts that
would stifle their growth. The global
economy is robust—so robust that the
public largely accepts the fact that tech companies use people’s personal data
for “surveillance-based micro-targeting
in advertising and politics.” This
practice wields disproportionate power
in shaping popular opinion and government
policy. Online content grows
more homogeneous, as the world moves
toward “one global Internet—and one
global consumer base.”
Each of these potential futures
presents different challenges, but
companies still can thrive—if they work
now to embrace digital transformation.
The GBPC has created what it calls its
SCORE framework, which outlines five
aspects of technology that companies
should target: strategy, customer experience,
operations, risk management and
compliance, and employees and culture.
Companies will need to remain agile,
tailoring their strategies to the scenarios
that come to pass. To fight against fake
news, for example, companies will need
to offer more personalized customer
experiences and nurture their talent
pipelines. To respond to a digital crackdown,
say the authors, companies should
build relationships based on transparency
and trust, while monitoring and
adapting to new regulations in areas
such as data privacy.
No matter the scenario, the report’s
authors emphasize that all companies
will need to improve their cybersecurity,
manage their digital risk exposure,
and embed digital technologies in their
corporate cultures.
“Companies cannot be passive
observers of the ongoing digital revolution,”
the authors write. “They should
be actively adapting to the current
digital disorder while also preparing
for future digital disorder by embarking
on strategic end-to-end digital
transformation.”
Read the report, “Competing in an Age of Digital Disorder.”